The Tourism Industry Emergency Response (TIER) group has released new research following the 7 July attacks in London which indicate that spending by overseas visitors could be at least £300m less than initial full-year UK industry expectations for 2005.

As 50 per cent of international visitors come to London, this represents a dip of £150m to the capital alone, although it represents just a 2 per cent drop in full-year expectations.

However, a strong start to 2005 means that overseas visitor arrivals and spending could still be reasonably expected to show a year-end increase over 2004.

TIER’s research – which used a number of industry sources during the two-week period of 7-20 July – has tracked the economic impact of the first set of attacks on the capital.

Commissioned through Oxford Economic Forecasting, the research does not take into account the events of 21 July, where four bombs were planted in synchronised attacks at Shepherds Bush, Oval and Warren Street underground stations and on a bus in Hackney.

The researchers will continue to monitor visitor numbers while receiving intelligence from industry sources both in the UK and around the world, which will be used to help establish the overall impact on the visitor economy of the attacks.

TIER announced the figures on 22 July, is facilitated by VisitBritain and includes representatives from The Tourism Alliance, Visit London, VisitBritain and the London Development Agency.

Separate focus group research will now be undertaken by VisitLondon to ascertain the reaction of its key tourism markets – both domestic and international – to the events of 7 and 21 July.

London’s hospitality sector is likely to experience a dip in both occupancy and average room rates, according to hotel consultancy group PKF.

PKF’s Robert Barnard said: “London’s hotel industry was holding its own during June but the unprecedented events of July will no doubt leave a mark on industry performance and the effects could echo for the next few months.

“Thoughts of preparations for the visitor influx during the Olympics in 2012 have now turned to immediate matters of ensuring London is still a place people want to visit during 2005.” Details: www.visitlondon.com